While you debate which running backs to start this week, please keep something in mind: The average per-game Fantasy point total of top-12 running backs in non-PPR and PPR are lower from 2019’s totals — 15.3 in PPR and 12.4 in non-PPR. Those numbers might rise as the weather turns cold and teams start to run with higher frequency, but it’s evidence that an already frustrating position in Fantasy is only getting leaner. Remember, any running back with 15-touch potential is a must-start, but it’s the running backs who work the goal line who have an edge in non-PPR, and it’s the guys who catch three-plus passes per game who have the edge in PPR.
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The line wants us to believe: There’s no home-field advantage for the Titans. But they’ve had convincing wins over the Bills and Bears at home and had the Steelers on the ropes. Indy is 2-2 on the road and their offense has a lot of issues to work itself out of. I have a hard time trusting the Colts to score 23 points as their implied team total suggests. The Titans should with a big dose of Derrick Henry.
The line wants us to believe: The Giants are in for another nail-biter. New York has played five straight where they’ve either lost by three or fewer or won. So it makes sense that this is the line. It’s fair. Philadelphia coming off a bye with several players returning from injury certainly seem like an advantage.
The line wants us to believe: The Packers defense isn’t so bad that they can’t blow out opponents. Four of the Packers last five wins have been by 14-plus points. It’s probably not surprising when you think of Aaron Rodgers, but totally surprising when you think about the Packers defense. Public perception is that the Jaguars stink, and it’s pretty much true. The oddsmakers might have gotten away with a larger line (Packers minus-16?), but maybe they hesitated because the Jaguars have managed to lose their past two by 10 or fewer points.
The line wants us to believe: The Lions can beat a team other than Jacksonville by more than three points. Seriously, two of the Lions’ three wins are by three or fewer points. In a matchup of two teams that botch their matchups on a weekly basis, it’s probably safer to take points, even if that means counting on Alex Smith. Washington has the top-ranked pass defense in the league and has a higher-ranked run defense (23rd) than Detroit (30th).
The line wants us to believe: The Browns can outscore the Texans. Maybe it was their drubbing at Pittsburgh or their matchup versus the Raiders in a tornado that made me forget that the Browns have actually scored at least 32 points in each of their wins. But the public hasn’t forgotten — they’re riding with the Browns — but have they forgotten that Cleveland’s defense gave up 34 points to the Bengals and 38 to the Steelers? Houston could easily cover the three. Read from source….